Levi,
Michal (4/09) The role of affect and personal experience on risk perception
involving a motor vehicle accident (Gary Kose, Ph.D.; Barry Ritzler, Ph.D.;
Paul Ramirez, Ph.D.)
Research in the domain of risk perception
suggests that people are inaccurate at judging the probabilities and relative
risks regarding range of safety issues. According to the availability
heuristic, people's perception of risk involved in frequently occurring events,
highly publicized or vivid memories that were tagged with affect, were
generally overestimated. Also, according to motivational reasoning research
people systematically underestimate their relative risk as they appear to be
unrealistically optimistic. The present study attempts to further understand
the mechanisms behind faulty quantitative risk estimates and optimistic bias
involving motor vehicle accidents by examining two related factors that are
thought to effect people's tendency toward faulty judgment: affect and personal
experience. Fifty five undergraduate students, not involved in accidents, and
fifty four students that were involved in accidents were assigned into three
experimental groups: negative, positive, and neutral. Subjects were asked to
estimate the general risk of being involved in an accident due to adverse
conditions and estimate their relative driving skill and safety. Overall,
drivers indicated that they were better drivers than the average driver and
less likely to engage in an accident in the next five years. Participants in
the negative affect group were less inclined to drive in an adverse weather
conditions and attributed to the adverse weather conditions greater risk than
the neutral group. However, the experience of being involved in an accident was
not related to the perception of risk. Implications for the availability and
optimistic biases literature are discussed and ideas for future research
explored.
