Wankmuller,
Michelle (12/10) To switch or not to switch? The effects of worry and
uncertainty intolerance on the Monty Hall Problem (Gary Kose, Ph.D.; Rhiannon
Allen, Ph.D.; Paul Ramirez, Ph.D.)
The present study examined a cognitive
vulnerability model specifying the role of worry and intolerance of uncertainty
in decision-making. One hundred university students completed self-report
questionnaires pertaining to worry, uncertainty intolerance (UI), and
meta-cognitive beliefs and then completed 48 consecutive trials of a
computerized Monty Hall Problem (MHP). The trials were subdivided into three
blocks corresponding to the experimental conditions: 16 were played for no
monetary prize [low risk]; 16 for a monetary prize the participant could keep
[high risk], and 16 played for a randomly assigned monetary prize or no prize
[varying risk]. The major outcome variables assessed were switch from initial
door choice, time for decision, and confidence.
The findings showed a significant main
effect for study condition with respect to switching, decision time, and
confidence, with the highest rates of switching and confidence ratings
occurring in the Money block (where switching was the most advantageous) and
the lowest rates of switching in the No Money condition (where adopting a
switching strategy mattered least). No significant relationship was found
between worry and the outcome variables, or between UI and performance on the
MHP. The data raise important questions about the influence of
practice/learning effects, the role of implicit cognitive processes, and the
impact of perceived risk in future studies of the psychological determinants of
decision-making behavior.
